28 Sep 2010 - 30 Sep 2010 All day Gillespie Conference Centre, Clare College, Queens Road, Cambridge and Mill Lane Lecture Rooms



Professor David Spiegelhalter (Statistical Laboratory, Cambridge)
Professor Susan Owens (Geography, Cambridge)
Professor Keith Richards (Geography, Cambridge)
Dr Brian MacGillivray (Mellon Sawyer Seminar Research Fellow, CRASSH)
Dr Erika Mansnerus (British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, CRASSH)


Please contact Michelle Maciejewska for further information.

Programme and registration

Please use the links on the right hand side of the page to see a provisional programme and book online.  Standard fee for the entire conference is £50 with a reduced student fee of £25.  There are also daily rates at £25 and £12.50.

Conference summary

This is the concluding conference of the Mellon-Sawyer seminar series Modelling Futures: Understanding Risk and Uncertainty

What do financial crises, pandemic flu and climate change have in common? All involve policy decisions that rely to some extent on formal models to predict the future – and all their models have been criticised for not fully taking deeper uncertainties and public values into account. The conference will focus on the relationship between formal analysis and policy making across a range of domains, including health, environment, finance and technology, bringing different disciplinary perspectives to bear on a set of shared problems and linked themes.

Four key themes will be explored during the conference. The programme includes a mix of public lectures, paper and poster presentations, and panel discussions.

Confirmed speakers include:

Professor Dan M Kahan (Law, Yale Law School)
Professor Gerd Gigerenzer (Director, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin)
Professor Mike Hulme (School of Environmental Sciences, UEA)
Lord Krebs (Principal, Jesus College, Oxford)
Professor Melissa Leach (Institute of  Development Studies, Sussex)
Professor Tim Palmer (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Oxford)
Professor Steve Rayner (Director, Institute for Science, Innovation and Society,  Oxford)
Professor Johan Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm)
Professor Andrew Stirling (SPRU, Sussex)

Mellon Sawyer Seminar Series at CRASSH 2009-10

Organising group
Professor Phillip Dawid (Mathematics, Cambridge)
Professor Michael Dempster (Judge Business School, Cambridge)
Dr Robert Doubleday (Geography, Cambridge)
Professor John Eatwell (Judge Business School, Cambridge)
Professor  Mary Jacobus (Director, CRASSH, Cambridge)
Dr William Janeway (Warburg Pincus, London, New York)
Dr Timothy Lewens (History and Philosophy of Science, Cambridge)
Professor Susan Owens (Geography, Cambridge)
Professor Hashem Pesaran (Economics, Cambridge)
Professor Keith Richards (Geography, Cambridge)
Professor David Spiegelhalter (Statistical Laboratory, Cambridge)

Administrative assistance: Michelle Maciejewska

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Tel: +44 1223 766886
Email enquiries@crassh.cam.ac.uk