Professor Christl Donnelly (Imperial College, London)
Collaborative research on the spread
of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza – the experience of the MRC Centre for
Outbreak Analysis and Modelling
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza first emerged in Mexico in March 2009 and has now spread rapidly across the globe. Key questions arose about how to best use limited resources to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Pre-pandemic modelling work had suggested that multi-faceted mitigation policies, including the use of antivirals and social distancing could have an important impact on overall and peak clinical attack rates. These assessments of intervention strategies, however, depended critically on the transmission potential, natural history of infection, antiviral effectiveness and age-related patterns of susceptibility for the pandemic strain. Real-time statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of transmission informed epidemic/pandemic responses in many settings and was a key component in scientific advice to governments and inter-governmental agencies. International collaborations contributed importantly to these efforts.
